tikitreasuresmegaways|消费持仓的信号：估值仓位开始提升 红利属性优势凸显

The core point of view of the consumer plate fund issuance declined in the first quarter, and the market first suppressed and then rose. The overall new issue share of 2024Q1 fund is 501Tikitreasuresmegaways.38 billion, down 41.5% from 2023Q1 and 17.2% from 2023Q4. The Shanghai Composite Index fell to 2635 from 2974 at the end of 2023, and then rebounded. The consumption position increased significantly, and the plate positions remained at an all-time high. Specifically, the ① fund has more stringent requirements on the profitability of consumer companies. Taking the liquor sector as an example, funds are further concentrated to the national leaders Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye.TikitreasuresmegawaysMost of his liquor companies' positions decline or increase by much less than Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye. Companies with high ② dividend yields have obviously attracted attention, and the positions of the White Power sector have increased significantly, among which Midea has become the largest consumer sector stock with the largest increase in position in the first quarter. From the fundamental point of view, the core CPI has fallen, and demand has yet to be restored. In March 2024, CPI rose 0.1% year-on-year, down 0.6% from the previous month; core CPI rose 0.6% year-on-year, also down 0.6pct from last month. From January to March, CPI and core CPI are still at historically low levels, reflecting that the performance of domestic consumer demand in the first quarter of 2024 is still weak and needs to be repaired later. Yield angle dividend assets take the lead, home appliances plate benefit. Since the beginning of the year, the top consumer industries are home appliances, textile clothing, and food and beverages, with + 10.0%,-0.9% and-5.3% respectively. Household appliances as the representative of high dividend assets have significantly outperformed, continuing the trend of dominant undervaluation since 2021. From the perspective of valuation, the valuation of the consumer sector has begun to rise, but it is still at an all-time low. Statistically, the CSI consumer index PE rose from 26.8 at the end of 2023 to 28.1 at the end of March 2024, while the CSI optional consumption index PE rose from 16.4 at the end of 2023 to 16.8 at the end of March 2024. Consumption position analysis of large consumption overall position: the position increased slightly compared with the previous quarter, and the performance of home appliances was outstanding. In terms of the proportion of positions, the overall position proportion of the large consumer industry of 2024Q1 is 23.8%, up 1.3% from the quarter-on-quarter, slightly higher than the historical average. Positions in first-tier consumer industries: agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishing and social services decreased significantly, while household appliances increased significantly. Home appliances benefit from low valuation and dividend attribute positions increased significantly, media and light industry positions also rebounded. In terms of the proportion of positions, the position of household appliances rose the highest, with a month-on-month increase of 0.89pct. Consumer secondary industry positions: White electricity plate increased significantly, household appliance parts decreased significantly. From the perspective of the proportion of subdivided track positions, among the top 10 consumer secondary industries with the highest proportion of positions increase in this quarter, white goods positions increased the highest, reaching 0.97pct, followed by spirits and small household appliances, respectively, improving 0.20pct and 0.15pct. Large consumption heavy stocks: the proportion of the top 10 consumer heavy positions in 2024Q1 is 15.5%, up 0.6% from the previous month, mainly because of the overall decline in market profit expectations, the scarcity of companies with excellent profitability is more obvious, funds gradually focus their positions on some high-quality companies, fund managers have a consensus 1: the differences between future expectations and fundamental performance of the consumer sector are greatly reduced. There is a high consensus on the pace of the recovery of consumer demand. Consensus 2: the consensus on the absolute leader with excellent business model and clear pattern is further strengthened, especially reflected in the further improvement of the position of the national leader in liquor. Consensus 3: attention to dividend assets has increased significantly, with the most obvious performance in the first quarter, and the evolution speed is faster, especially reflected in the improvement of white power leading positions. Disagreement: growth or dividend? Structural growth companies are more undervalued in the current mood, but their uncertainty is also higher under the long-term trend of demographic and disposable income changes, which may be the reason for the growth of reduced consumption. But if the underlying logic of structural growth is sound, it may lead to a better yield than dividend assets. Investment advice focus on: 1) benefit from demographic changes, the industry as a whole still has a growth advantage of the track, such as coffee, health products. 2) with a strong moat and a solid competitive landscape, companies with good ability to raise prices, such as high-end spirits, although the growth rate is expected to decline. 3) the target with low valuation and dividend advantage, such as the leading company with high dividend and stable performance in the home appliance sector. Risk prompts sample statistical deviation and market volatility risk. [disclaimer] this article only represents the views of a third party and does not represent the position of Hexun. Investors operate accordingly, at their own risk.

[disclaimer] this article only represents the views of a third party and does not represent the position of Hexun. Investors operate accordingly, at their own risk.