jackpotlastresult| For six consecutive days of correction, the bond market's debt base has dropped sharply. How can "egg collectors" collect eggs?
“长端利率下行最流畅的时候，可能已经过去。”针对近期的债市大调整，市场人士做出这样的预判。从4月24日起，30年国债收益率一口气拉出六根阳线，收益率上行之下，债基一周内最大跌幅超过1%，“收蛋人”（是基金公司对债基投资者的别称）开始承受亏损。
分析直言，在此前巨幅上涨中，长端利率累积了大量的交易盘，较为脆弱的交易结构使得债市调整时波幅显著放大。即是说，债市当前调整仍然是偏短期、交易层面的，长期向好因素并未发生明显改变。进入5月后，支撑债市向好的长期因素并未发生明显改变，可考虑适当缩短久期，等待债市调整之后的加仓机会。
“调整幅度已接近去年水平”
根据同花顺iFinD数据，截至4月30日的近1周时间内，全市场债券基金大部分出现浮亏，收益率中位数为-0jackpotlastresult.0194%。其中，华夏鼎富债券A累计亏损超过1%，西部利得鑫泓增强债券A、工银可转债债券跌幅均超过0jackpotlastresult.8%，另外还有中信保诚稳达A、汇添富稳乐回报债券A、广发集利一年定开债券A等基金跌幅超过0.3%。
从30年国债收益率走势来看，4月中旬以来的稳步下行趋势在4月下旬逐渐打破，该指数从4月24日起一连拉出六根阳线，收益率从2.4%附近回调至2.55%左右。10年期国债收益率走势方面，该指数先是在4月24日上涨1.69%，随后在4月28和4月29日分别上涨5.85%和1.07%。
华夏基金直言，今年以来债券市场总体呈现偏牛格局，10年期国债收益率从年初高点2.7%到近期逼近2.2%的低点，下行幅度较大。“但在市场总体走牛过程中，因为投资者短期畏高情绪，市场出现调整本就难免。截至4月29日，10年期国债收益率从低点接近2.2%的位置已经回调到2.35%附近，调整幅度已经接近去年8—10月的债市调整幅度，只是与去年8—10月相比，市场供给冲击目前尚未出现。”
招商基金也持有类似观点。招商基金分析称，从中观高频数据看，终端需求表现分化，4月前25天42城新建地产销量增速降幅收窄，4月前21天乘联会乘用车零售、批发销量增速均有回落；工业生产也进一步恢复，样本钢厂钢材产量增速回升，但石油沥青装置开工率下行，4月前25天六大发电集团日均耗煤增速回落。“整体看，目前基本面修复程度暂不构成利率明显大幅反弹上行的风险。”
“债市近期市场风险偏好有所回升，短端利率也有所上行。”博时基金分析称，截至目前高频数据暂未观察到经济基本面有显著改观。从资产价格的表现来看，市场对后续的地产政策再次产生了一定的乐观预期。政策上看，央行近期也对长端利率定价做明确表态，这也使得市场的交易情绪进一步降温。
长端利率此前累积大量交易盘
那么，为何债市会在近期发生大波动？从业内分析来看，这其中既有经济基本面因素，也有市场交易因素。
华夏基金提及，4月23日相关媒体刊登央行相关人士采访稿，提及“长期国债收益率总体会运行在与长期经济增长预期相匹配的合理区间内”，市场通过自发的定价调整，现在30年国债重新站上2.5%。同时，市场担忧5月后可能出现地方债、特别国债的放量供给，加剧了债市的调整。此外，地产政策的放松预期，比如周末成都楼市放开限购，4月底即将召开政治局会议，市场担心政策面可能会出台一些稳增长的刺激政策。“不过，从近年来债市定价的逻辑链条来看，地产政策的放松多对收益率产生时点性的冲击，持续性往往相对不强，债市更关注的还是地产销售的实际量价变化。”
博时基金则认为，近期债市调整显著，尤其是此前涨幅较大的长端和超长端品种。这固然和央行表态以及风险偏好的变化有关。但更关键的是，在此前巨幅的上涨中，长端利率累积了大量的交易盘，较为脆弱的交易结构，使得债市调整时波幅显著放大。“jackpotlastresult我们认为长端利率下行最流畅的时候可能已经过去，债市将进入震荡期。但在经济基本面（尤其是地产链）未观察到趋势性好转时，我们认为收益率上行的空间也较为有限。”
“综合来看，债市当前的调整仍然是偏短期、交易层面的调整，监管态度的变化，更多是担心利率偏低，重回性价比区间之后，影响就会下降；地产政策的放松，冲击更多是在预期层面，随后进入等待销售数据的阶段，影响可能钝化；债券发行的提速，也一再预期，关键还是资金面的稳定性。”华夏基金称。
本次回调后该如何介入？
历经4月末尾一轮调整后，市场认为进入5月后，支撑债市向好的长期因素并未发生明显改变，可考虑适当缩短久期，等待债市调整之后的加仓机会。
华夏基金表示，真正对债券市场影响更长远的，应该是其jackpotlastresult他更能明显表征基本面复苏的信号。当前还没有因素真正触发债牛行情的反转，货币政策依然稳健偏松，“资产荒”短期内仍将延续，房地产行业的供求关系、市场预期已经出现了深刻的变化，支撑债市向好的长期因素并未发生明显改变，从过去一段时间中国债市的表现来看，任何一次大的回调都是非常好的介入机会。
"at present, under the continued voice and statement of the central bank on long-end yields, the bond market mood may be slightly cautious in the short term." China Merchants Fund said that in terms of the long end, the current long end yield is too low, if the follow-up policy continues to declare its position, it may lead to the early excessive pursuit of long-term bonds trading and allocation institutions to take action to quickly stop profits, thus increasing the volatility of the bond market. On the short-term side, due to the decline in the availability of "high-interest" deposits and non-standard assets, allocation pressure may be transmitted to goods-based and short-term debt funds, which may still be supported by allocation demand in the short term.
"follow-up attention needs to be paid to the impact of regulatory policies on bond market sentiment, the possibility that the month-end PMI data will exceed expectations, whether property policy will be further relaxed and bring significant repair during the May Day Golden week, and the pace of bond supply in May. The combination operation may choose to maintain a certain degree of liquidity, consider appropriately shortening the duration, and wait for the opportunity to increase positions after the adjustment of the bond market. " Investment promotion fund.
Zhang Jun, fund manager of Qianhai Open Source Xianghe Bond Fund, said that the bond market needs to enter a new balance, and a new price center will be formed when the allocation of funds is expected to be stable. then look for a new direction according to economic development and policy effects. If short-term policy is effective or economic stabilisation is good, then bonds are likely to consolidate; if economic data are still weak, there is hope to continue to rise steadily. After the recent sharp rise, he remains neutral on ultra-long debt and will not rush to increase the allocation of ultra-long debt. Zhang Jun thinks it is not advisable for some investors to follow the behavior of a bond fund named 'ALL IN''. He suggests that when choosing a secondary debt base, investors choose products that are more suitable for them according to their own income expectations, risk preferences and investment experience. "
But there are also institutions that are relatively cautious. CEIBS believes that global markets may need to revalue the pace of the Fed's future monetary policy in the second quarter. Some data show that the rise in U. S. inflation since the beginning of the year may not be temporary, and the process of falling inflation in the United States is stalling. The market has begun to reassess the inflation outlook and the pace at which interest rate cuts begin. The adjustment of this round of long-end interest rates comes from the central bank's concern and potential supply worries, and what is more noteworthy is that the short-end has also begun to adjust, corresponding to the marginal convergence of funds and the reduction of net financial outflow of big banks. at the same time, we can see that the buying of short-end interest rates by big banks has also significantly decreased or even turned to sell. Given the peak of net financing of government debt in May and the continued 2 billion reverse repurchase by the central bank, the pattern of abundant capital of big banks in the early period may be reversed, and the short end may return to the dominant logic of interest rate spreads. Under such circumstances, it is recommended to wait and see for the time being. "
