onlineroulettewheel| zhongjin| May FOMC: Short-term tightening of the Fed is not a bad thing

专题onlineroulettewheel：美联储维持基准利率不变 将从6月开始放缓缩表步伐

自3月底FOMC以来，市场降息预期已经出现onlineroulettewheel了较大的变化，接连不断的超预期数据使得降息预期一推再推，目前已经降至年内降息一次（11月），甚至再加息的声音也不时出现，10年美债利率也已升至4onlineroulettewheel.7%，较年初低点抬升近100bp。因此这一背景下，市场担心此次美联储是否会变得更鹰。不过，正如我们在《美联储降息的门槛》中所说，当前需要金融条件尽快再度收紧来实现压制需求和通胀的目的，这虽然会不可避免的带来市场波动和压力，但反而有助于降息交易尽快再度开启，是“必要的代价”，否则只会在后续带来更多反复。换言之，短期内美联储鹰一些反而更好。

从会议声明和鲍威尔会后表态看，会议整体基调较为平衡，一方面排除了下一次的政策操作是加息的可能性，让市场一度兴奋而大涨，另一方面也承认通胀回落进展缓慢还需要时间[1]。同时，如我们此前所预期，此次会议宣布将于6月开始缩表降速（QT Taper），国债缩减幅度从当前的每月600亿美元降至250亿美元，MBS的缩减步伐维持在每月350亿美元不变。正因如此，美股冲高回落，美债下行抬升，美元指数和黄金反应相对较小。

一、降息路径：年内仍有降息可能，但需以金融条件收紧为前提，因此美联储需要维持一定时间的紧缩姿态

对于市场关注的政策路径，此次会议鲍威尔传递的几点信息是：1）达到美联储希望的目标可能需要更长时间，这与最近通胀和就业数据接连超预期一致，也是市场已经计入的信息；2）下一步的政策操作不太可能是加息，大体排除了市场对于紧缩的担忧，这个与我们的预期基本一致，除非出现意外的供给冲击导致通胀失控；3）降息的门槛，除了通胀回落和就业放缓外（例如失业率提高0.2%到4%以上），也有其他可能路径，我们猜测暗含不需要完全经济大幅恶化才能降息，而只需要达到合适的窗口。

从上面的信息可以看出，此次美联储的表态相对均衡，在充分提示降息可能需要等待更久需要更多耐心的同时，也打消市场最为担心的还需进一步加息的风险。我们认为，在当前的市场环境下，美联储需要保持一段时间紧缩姿态，越鹰反而越好，由此导致的短期回撤为后续反弹提供了基础。相反，如果过于鸽派则不是好事（当前的局面恰恰是去年四季度鲍威尔意外鸽派的直接结果），反而会拉长控制通胀的战线和放大风险，由此导致的市场反弹我们也不建议参与。

我们认为仍有降息可能性，并不认同从一个极端（年初预期降息6-7次）摇摆到另一个极端（目前预期不降息甚至加息）的看法，主要依据是利率的反身性效果。近期数据改善且超预期是去年四季度利率下行过快的结果，因此当前利率与金融条件再度收紧也会在未来一段时间重新压制需求和通胀。从历史经验看，金融条件收紧后，往往1-3个月后通胀和增长数据低于预期的概率也会上升。近期披露的主要数据如4月Markit制造业PMI、3月成屋销售、4月ISM制造业PMI都已经开始体现这一效果。此外，我们测算未来几个月通胀也或继续回落。过去几个月房租、油价和运输等分项分别造成了CPI的持续韧性，但根据我们的分项预测模型初步测算，未来几个月核心CPI同比和环比依然维持下降趋势，主要由于占比最大的房租分项已经出现松动。从水平看，我们测算整体和核心CPI在下半年分别回到3%和3.5%以下，与2%仍有距离，但方向向下也可以构成降息开启的基础。

但现在可能收紧的程度还不够，所以还需要一定时间。截至4月30日，金融条件指数为99.63，还未达到紧缩区间。如果金融条件重回100的紧缩区间，美股市场需要回调5-7%至4700点附近，美国信用利差走阔50bp左右，可以抬升金融条件至紧缩区间。因此，美联储还需要维持一定时间的紧缩姿态来保持金融条件收紧态势。

我们认为降息仍有可能的另外一个原因是，降息并不是必须要与经济大幅恶化划等号，否则就无法解释1995年和2019年仅仅三次“浅尝辄止”的降息。维护金融稳定性和预防式降息也是一个重要因素。当前利差倒挂的压力是90年代以来历次加息周期中前所未见的，直接导致了美股在2022年加息周期中就开始下跌。持续且深度倒挂的曲线会对金融机构造成巨大压力，成为美国中小银行麻烦不断的根源。因此，美联储只需找到一个合适窗口开启降息，且开启后并不需要太多次。从鲍威尔的发言可以看出，降息开启并不以经济数据大幅恶化为门槛，也有其他的降息路径。

二、缩表节奏：6月开始降速，三季度金融流动性或将迎来改善

如我们此前预期，为了提前对冲缩表可能对银行准备金带来的冲击（类似于2019年钱荒），本次会议宣布将从6月开始缩表减速（QT Taper），其中国债从过去的600亿美元每月缩减至250亿美元每月，MBS继续维持350美元每月的缩表规模。在会后新闻发布会上，鲍威尔称减缓缩表步伐有助于降低货币市场压力，可视为预防性措施。2019年正是由于准备金过低引发钱荒问题，我们根据银行准备金的充裕程度测算，按照目前缩表的进程，准备金在今年底就会从过度充裕转为适度充裕水平，美联储提前减速是恰当的。

The contraction deceleration helps to reduce financial liquidity pressure, and the inflection point may occur at the end of the second quarter. In our report "US liquidity may usher in an inflection Point" in early March, we suggested that according to the pace of Fed contraction, the rate of reverse repurchase consumption of money market funds, and the changes in TGA accounts of fiscal deposits, financial liquidity, which has been improving continuously since the fourth quarter of last year, will reach an inflection point in the second quarter of this year, which in turn will adversely affect liquidity-sensitive assets. This kind of influence has begun to appear recently, and it has also produced some pressure on the market. At present, the market performance is still about 7% away from the pressure point we estimated. The Fed's contraction slowed in June, and according to our estimates, the pressure will begin to ease in the third quarter, leading to an improvement in liquidity.

Third, the meaning of assets: the third quarter is the time for improvement, with short-term debt first, long-term debt second, US stocks and credit debt adjusted and then intervened, and the bulk of gold is obviously overdrawn.

Combined with the above two models of financial conditions and financial liquidity, we jointly point to the possibility that things may improve again after the third quarter. In fact, with 30-year US mortgage rates rising again recently, existing home sales, an important support of recent good US demand and high inflation, have begun to fall back. At that time, the "return run" after the pullback of various types of assets, as well as the re-suppression of demand and prices, may lead to the resumption of interest rate cuts and better opportunities for assets. it's just that we still remind us not to cut interest rates too much and too quickly as we expected at the beginning of the year.

From an asset point of view, we think we need to think against the trend at the right time. It is precisely because the financial conditions and financial liquidity have a certain reflexive effect, asset adjustment has its "inevitability", but it is conducive to the restart of interest rate reduction transactions. Therefore, we do not think it is necessary to go to the other extreme, that is, interest rates are not expected to be cut at all, just as interest rates were "high" at 5% in October last year and "low" at 3.8% at the beginning of this year. Combined with the Fed's statement at its May meeting and the follow-up economic impact of tighter financial conditions, we believe that interest rate cuts are still worth laying out. From the perspective of asset selection, we can give priority to the allocation of safe-haven assets such as bonds and gold, and after the confirmation of interest rate cuts and the repair of economic expectations, we can turn to US stocks and commodities.

► Treasuries: the current allocation of short-term bonds, interest rate reduction trading heating up to switch to long-term bonds. At present, as the probability of raising interest rates is relatively small, short-end treasury bonds are a better choice. The current 4.7% of long-end treasury bonds have basically not cut interest rates during the year, which is more fully expected. In addition, combined with the latest bond issuance plan of the Ministry of Finance, it plans to issue $243 billion of bonds in the second quarter ($748 billion in the first quarter) and continue to issue $847 billion in the third quarter, with a relatively moderate degree of bond issuance. it is far lower than the net issuance of about $1 trillion in a single quarter during the period of a sharp surge in Treasury supply in the third quarter of last year. Therefore, the bond issuance pressure corresponding to last year's high of 5% is not likely to occur this year.

► gold: overdraft at the current point, there is still some room after the resumption of interest rate reduction trading. Based on the current real interest rate of 2%-2.2% and the estimate of the dollar index 105106, the reasonable short-term center of gold should be about US $2100 / oz. At present, the gold trading point is higher than the target point, deviates greatly from the US dollar and the real interest rate, and there is an overdraft in the short term. Looking back, under the assumption of 1.5% real interest rate and 102-106 dollar index, the reasonable center of gold is 2400 to 2500 US dollars per ounce. After the resumption of interest rate cuts, gold still has a wave of room for interest rate cuts until it ends once or twice ("what happened the last time gold interest rates rose with the dollar?" ") Looking back at the situation since 1971, we find that it is not common for all three to rise together in history; after it occurs, the probability of falling after one month is close to 60%, giving up the increase within an average of two months.

► U. S. stocks: there is still pressure, after the pullback to intervene. Combined with our financial liquidity and financial condition model, the US stock market pullback to about 4700 points can basically reach the tightening range. But throughout the year, we are not pessimistic about US stocks. Under the benchmark assumption of an economic soft landing, US stocks may switch from current denominator logic to numerator logic after interest rate cuts, and US stocks may rebound again driven by economic fundamentals.

► commodities: also a serious rush, the need to cut interest rates after the demand side is expected to improve. Commodities are not directly reflected in the financial conditions index, but their logic of pushing up commodity prices and improving demand, like US stocks and US credit bonds, requires a pullback to lead to the eventual realization of interest rate cuts.

[1] httpsOnlineroulettewheel: / / www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcpresconf20240501.htm

This article is from "May FOMC: it is not a bad thing for the Fed to tighten in the short term", which has been released on May 2, 2024.

Li Yujie analyst SAC practice Certificate No.: S0080523030005 SFC CE Ref:BRG962

Analyst Liu Gang SAC practice Certificate No.: S0080512030003 SFC CE Ref:AVH867

Yang Xuanting contact SAC practice Certificate No.: S0080122080405

Wang Zilin contact SAC practice Certificate No.: S0080123090053

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