mspacmanarcade|中金：港股还有多少上涨空间？

时间2024-05-06 02:20:33分类Society浏览4

导读：Source: Kevin Strategy ResearchAbstractIn just two weeks, the Hong Kong stock market recovered all its losses since September last ye......

Source: Kevin Strategy Research

Abstract

In just two weeks, the Hong Kong stock market recovered all its losses since September last year, with the Hang Seng index breaking through 18000 points, leading the global market higher. The scale and speed of this rebound has greatly exceeded market expectations and aroused widespread concern, so what is the reason behind the surge? Why the recent large inflows of foreign capital? How much space and continuity are there? After a rise of nearly 13 per cent in just two weeks (Hang Seng Technology is up more than 18 per cent), how much room do Hong Kong stocks have?

First, why is the market soaring? Why does foreign capital inflow? The demand for rebalancing under fluctuations in external markets is most obvious in emerging markets and Asia with the exception of Japanese funds. Transactional capital return and short selling cover do account for a certain proportion, local and regional allocation funds also return, but it is difficult to confirm whether it is the main force. Some of the main positions are still in the Asia-Pacific region and emerging markets, and there is also a need for local and regional funds to rebalance their positions. By contrast, the re-inflow of long-term funds into the Chinese market from Europe and the United States often needs to see more signs of stabilizing fundamentals, not just because of external market fluctuations.

Second, how much room is there for the inflow of foreign capital? Regional rebalancing funds are more due to external fluctuations, while the return of more long-term funds needs to be based on improved fundamentals. 1) if all the sustained outflows since the first quarter of this year were returned, it would correspond to $4.9 billion, equivalent to 17 per cent of outflows from highs in 2021 and 26 per cent since 2023. 2) if the proportion of global funds allocated to the Chinese market returns to the standard allocation, it will bring an inflow of US $42.1 billion.

Third, how much room is left for Hong Kong stocks? Risk premium is the main contribution, short-term emotional overdraft; there may be 2-7% room for mood improvement alone. This round of market is mainly driven by the valuation pushed up by the capital side. After the recent rapid rise, the short-term overdraft is obvious. 1) if the risk premium falls back to the levels seen in the middle of last year and the beginning of last year, it corresponds to about 2-7% of the space, respectively. 2) if the follow-up policy continues to make efforts, it will promote a profit growth of 10% in an optimistic situation, corresponding to an increase of about 20%.

Text

How much room is left for Hong Kong stocks?

Hong Kong stocks rose strongly again during the May Day holiday this week, following last week's biggest weekly gain since October 2011. Among the major indexes, the Hang Seng Science and Technology Index led the rise of 6%.Mspacmanarcade.8%, the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng SOEs and MSCI China rose 4.7%, 4.4% and 3.9%, respectively. At the plate level, with the exception of energy (- 1.2%), raw materials (- 0.5%) and telecommunications services (- 0.3%), other sectors increased to varying degrees, with real estate (+ 12.2%), insurance (+ 6.4%) and media and entertainment (+ 5.2%) leading the rise. It is worth pointing out that in the absence of southbound funds during the May Day holiday in the second half of this week, Hong Kong stocks continued to rise, especially on Thursday, up 2.5% in a single day, and Hang Seng Technology rose 4.5%. This also shows that the rapid rise in the Hong Kong stock market is indeed driven by non-mainland funds, such as local funds and some foreign investors ("Prospect Analysis after Hong Kong stocks soar").

So why is there a large inflow of foreign capital recently? How much space and continuity are there? After a rise of nearly 13 per cent in just two weeks (Hang Seng Technology is up more than 18 per cent), how much room do Hong Kong stocks have? In response to the above-mentioned issues of general concern to the marketMspacmanarcadeLet's further analyze the answer.

Chart: the overseas Chinese stock market rose as a whole last week

Chart: Hong Kong stocks outperform major global markets

Chart: real estate and insurance led gains, while energy and raw materials fell at the top.

First, why is the market soaring? Why does foreign capital inflow? Rebalancing demand under fluctuations in external markets, emerging markets and Asia except Japanese funds are the most obvious.

In just two weeks, the Hong Kong stock market recovered all its losses since September last year, with the Hang Seng Index breaking through 18000 points, leading the global market higher. The scale and speed of this rebound has greatly exceeded market expectations and aroused widespread concern, so what is the reason behind the surge?

There have been some positive changes in fundamentals and policy, but none of them alone can explain such a rapid and sharp rise. As analyzed in our "Prospect Analysis of Hong Kong stocks after the Great rise", from the perspective of fundamentals, the recent positive changes are limited: 1) since April, the profit forecast of the Hong Kong stock index, especially the Internet technology sector, has not been substantially revised upwards. instead, it's downgraded. 2) after the higher-than-expected first-quarter data, high-frequency data have weakened since April, especially those related to real estate and industrial output and investment. at the same time, US real estate demand, which is mainly driven by exports, has also begun to weaken as interest rates have rebounded; 3) Fiscal spending progress and credit data remain weak.

Chart: hang Seng Index profit forecast for 2024 has risen slightly by 0.6% since mid-April.

Chart: last week, insurance and transportation profits were revised up, while diversified finance and information technology were revised down the most.

Chart: the broad fiscal deficit shrank compared with the fourth quarter of last year.

Chart: the fiscal pulse turns negative in 2023 and is weaker in early 2024 than in December 2023.

Chart: recent macro high-frequency data are mixed, industrial production and real estate are still weak, and consumption has improved.

Chart: credit spreads widen ~ 50bp and US stocks fall 8-10% can make financial conditions tighten again

From a policy point of view, there have been some positive developments recently: mainly including five cooperation measures with Hong Kong ("interpretation of five capital market cooperation measures"), bond purchase by the central bank, relaxation of purchase restrictions in more cities such as Chengdu and Beijing, and the statement on finance, currency and real estate at the meeting of the political Bureau in April ("We should issue and make good use of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds as soon as possible, and speed up the issuance and use of special bonds". Maintain the necessary intensity of fiscal expenditure "," flexible use of interest rates and deposit reserve ratio and other policy tools "," overall study of policies and measures to digest stock real estate and optimize incremental housing ") exceeded market expectations.

It is not difficult to see that capital is the main reason why the market appears so quickly and rises beyond the support of fundamentals and policies. Under the circumstances that the turnover of the Hong Kong stock market has always been low and there has been a shortage of sellers after a continuous correction in the past three years, the prying movement of marginal changes in capital and the overlay of short selling will often lead to a rapid and substantial rise. this is also a typical feature of Hong Kong stocks in history ("Prospect Analysis after Hong Kong stocks soar").

　　1）哪些资金是主力？综合汇总各方面渠道和数据后，我们得出初步结论：外资的确有流入，但交易型资金回流及卖空回补确实占一定比例，本地和区域型配置资金亦有所回流，但难以确认是否是主力。由于外资缺乏完备且全局性的统计，而港股市场持股又不穿透，使得几乎无法一劳永逸的用一个数据来刻画资金来源，尤其是在周度这一如此短期的时间周期内，这也使得近期投资者从各个渠道获取的信息并不一致，甚至有相互矛盾的地方。

　　从我们追踪并建议使用的EPFR主动型基金数据看（主要衡量主观多头的基金类机构投资者，《如何刻画并分析外资？》），部分区域外资有回流但规模不大，说明并不是持续大幅的流入和主要贡献，否则应该在各个渠道和整体上都有所体现。本周截至周三的数据显示，主动被动型资金流出均明显收窄。本周被动型资金流出2.37亿美元（vs．上周流出11.82亿美元），主动型资金流出2.79亿美元（vs．上周流出4.88亿美元）。分地区来看，主动型中的全球基金本周转为流入0.27亿美元，被动型中的全球基金及全球新兴市场基金分别转为流入0.41亿美元及0.4亿美元。

　　图表：海外主动型资金连续第44周流出港股市场

　　2）为什么突然流入？外围市场波动下本地和区域资金的再平衡需求。从流入主要以交易型资金以及本地和区域型配置资金的特征看，部分外资之所以流入可能与外围市场如日本和美股市场波动背景下的再平衡需求有关：一方面，日本股市从高点下跌6.9%且日元汇率大幅贬值，都使得此前一度乐观甚至亢奋的投资热情降温；另一方面，美股在近期美联储降息不断推后的也持续波动，这些因素都使得从去年四季度尤其是今年年初流出中国市场做多日股和美股的交易并没有想象的那么美好。

　　因此，一些主阵地仍在亚太地区和新兴市场的本地和区域资金也有仓位再平衡回来的需求，对比之下，欧美长线资金对于中国市场的重新流入往往需要看到更多基本面企稳向好的迹象，而并非仅是因为外围市场波动。

　　这一逻辑与近期资金流向数据也基本能够得到呼应。同样是基于EPFR数据，2024年以来，各类型基金对中资股配置比例均有不同程度回升，尤以新兴市场基金和亚洲除日本基金最为明显。截至3月底，全球型基金（配置范围为全球的基金）低配中资股0.21%（基准比例0.89%，2023年底低配0.30%），全球新兴市场基金低配中资股1.92%（基准比例23.73%，2023年底低配2.76%），全球除美国基金低配中资股1.68%（基准比例3.78%，2023年底低配1.99%），亚洲除日本基金低配中资股3.31%（基准比例25.55%，2023年底低配4.8%）。

　　图表：各区域基金对中国低配程度均有不同程度的回落

　　图表：主动型中的全球基金、被动型基金中的全球及全球新兴市场皆有不同程度的流入

　　二、外资还有多少流入空间？区域再平衡资金更多是因为外围波动，而更多长线资金回来需基于基本面好转

　　外资还有多少流入空间是当下市场普遍关心的问题。我们认为，如果只是因为外围市场波动导致本来主阵地在中国市场和亚洲市场的资金重新再平衡回来，这一流入规模可能相对受限，如今年一季度以来的流出规模全部回补。

　　相比之下，更为长期的资金流入和对中国市场的配置增加，则需要基于基本面改善的长逻辑才能实现。

　　我们根据不同情形做出以下两种假设：

　　1）若今年一季度以来持续流出的资金全部回流，对应49亿美元，相当于2021年自高点起流出规模的17%和2023年以来流出规模的26%。之所以选择今年一季度，是因为外围市场尤其是日本股市成为吸引全球投资者目光最主要的焦点，也因此可能使得一部分资金流出而做多日股，2023年年初和下半年则更多对应美国和欧洲资金的流出。如果粗略的以此作为参照，对应EPFR口径下，2021年自高点起流出规模的17%和2023年以来流出规模的26%。