bingonearmethisweekend|RU市场分析：2024年供需结构与2021年相似，预计存在上涨空间

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The inflection point of global natural rubber supply has not reached in 2024.BingonearmethisweekendThe output is expected to increase by 0% year on year.Bingonearmethisweekend.5%; boosted by China's policy, the output of passenger cars and commercial vehicles has increased compared with the same period last year, and rubber prices are expected to rise to some extent, but most of the positive factors have been reflected.

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[natural rubber market ushering in new opportunities] after 15 years of ups and downs in the global natural rubber market, the structure of supply and demand in 2024 is similar to that in 2021, and there is expected to be room for growth. However, at present, many factors have been fully reflected in the disk. The interaction between supply and price has always been a key factor affecting the natural rubber market. In the case of macro-positive or sudden production reduction, prices will rise, which in turn will stimulate tapping and planting, resulting in an increase in production and capacity, and even overcapacity. On the contrary, when the macro bearish or production reduction expectations fail, prices fall, followed by a decline in tapping and planting enthusiasm, a decrease in production, and finally pull prices up. Judging from the historical market, the settlement price of RU's main contract has experienced four rounds of ups and downs in the past 15 years. It is worth noting that with the improvement of the industrial chain, the rise and fall of each round of the market has gradually shrunk, and the highest and lowest points have declined and risen one by one. On the demand side, the growth of consumption is a key factor driving up prices. When the policy is good for downstream consumption, prices rise sharply; when downstream consumption falls short of expectations, prices fall, but the impact is relatively weak. The inflection point of global natural rubber supply has not yet arrived in 2024, and it is expected that the production capacity of the main producing countries will begin to decline around 2025. Driven by the policy, the automobile trade-in activity is expected to further drive supporting consumption and bring new growth points to the market. According to historical data, natural rubber production declined in 2009, 2014 and 2020 compared with the same period last year, while in other years there were varying degrees of growth. Affected by the US subprime mortgage crisis, the settlement price of the main contract of RU fell by about 45 per cent in 2009. Between 2010 and 2013, production grew by more than 3 per cent year-on-year, mainly due to economic recovery and high price incentives. In 2014, production fell again due to geographical conflicts and super-strong El Ni ñ o. Thailand's floods and joint export restrictions led to an increase in production from 2017 to 2018. In 2020, public health events reduced production by 2% compared with the same period last year. On the demand side, global natural rubber consumption fell in 2009, but under China's aggressive consumption stimulus policy, tire production increased by 18 per cent year-on-year. In 2010, global consumption increased by 16.2% compared with the same period last year, thanks to economic recovery and China's reserve collection policy. In 2020, global consumption fell again, but China's heavy truck supply-side reform and new energy vehicle policy contributed to the growth of demand. In the relationship between price and tire production, the monthly difference, price difference and inventory of the main contract of RU are all important factors that affect the price. The monthly difference structure of RU1-5 and RU5-9, as well as the price difference of Thai mixed and RU contracts, are the focus that investors need to pay attention to. In addition, the impact of social inventory of old whole latex and Qingdao dry rubber on RU prices can not be ignored. To sum up, the supply and demand structure of natural rubber market in 2024 is similar to that in 2021, and there is expected to be a certain degree of room for increase. Investors should pay close attention to the interaction between supply and price, policy changes and the dynamics of downstream consumer demand in order to grasp the new opportunities in the market.